SpaceX AI Revenue’s September Crossover Is Still Unverified

The deadline passed, but the result is not yet established

Elon Musk told SpaceX employees that AI revenue would exceed all other SpaceX revenue “probably in September.” September has passed, but the reporting available on October 3 did not confirm whether the crossover happened: it said SpaceX had filed nothing since its August 4 report. The forecast is therefore still unverified, not a reported result. Musk’s forecast and the filing status

The distinction matters because the latest reported quarter offered a sizable gap to close. SpaceX’s Q2 revenue was $7.81 billion, with $2.56 billion attributed to AI and $5.25 billion to Connectivity and Space combined, according to figures reported by The Motley Fool and recounted by 24/7 Wall St. Those quarterly totals give context, but they cannot establish September’s monthly result. The reported Q2 figures

Growth and new contracts do not settle the September comparison

AI revenue rose 247% in Q2, while Connectivity revenue reached $4.291 billion, up 66%. Those growth rates point to a fast-growing AI business, but the comparison still depends on actual revenue over the relevant period, not growth rates alone. The Q2 growth and Connectivity figures

SpaceX also said it had contracted an additional $6.7 billion in cloud-services revenue over a six-month period, with the ramp beginning in October. That may support later growth, but it starts after Musk’s September deadline and cannot, by itself, demonstrate that AI revenue had already passed the other businesses. The contracted cloud revenue and expected ramp

The buildout is substantial: 1.4 gigawatts of AI compute capacity at Q2’s end, with $15.83 billion of that quarter’s capital expenditure directed to AI compute. The scale helps explain the revenue ambition, while also making clear that a forecast depends on turning major infrastructure investment into revenue. Q2 compute capacity and capital expenditure

A forecast is not the same as reported revenue

Musk also projected 10 gigawatts of AI computing capacity by the end of the following year and $300 billion to $500 billion in annual AI revenue by 2028, using an estimate of $30 to $50 per watt. He called the per-watt figure “just a guess.” Separately, the article cites a Goldman Sachs estimate of $15.6 billion in AI revenue for all of 2026. These are different kinds of forward-looking numbers, covering different periods; neither verifies September’s actual revenue. The projections and outside estimate

The article expected SpaceX’s Q3 report in late October or early November. Segment totals may clarify the broader trend; a monthly figure or September exit rate would make the specific deadline easier to check. Until then, rapid growth and future contracts are evidence of momentum, not proof that the crossover occurred. The expected Q3 reporting window and details to watch